Medical Marijuana Dispensaries (A Voter Education) - The Poudre District Statistics Data Analysis

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enlightenedStory Under Construction enlightened

WE HAVE A 300% INCREASE IN MARIJUANA DRUG INCIDENTS IN FORT COLLINS..."
⇒ Jerry Wilson, Superintendent, Poudre School District, Summer-Fall 2011

After having analyzed the data for the school years starting in 2008 through 2010 over the holidays, lets determine if that is true. The summary statistics indicate the following:

Overall Attendance:        
  2008 2009 2010 2008-2010
  25953 26478 26811  
%Change:   2.02% 1.26% 3.31%
Overall Drug Incidents:        
  2008 2009 2010 2008-2010
  91 135 200  
%Change:   48.35% 48.15% 119.78%
Overall Drug Incidents as percentage of  attendance:        
  2008 2009 2010 2008-2010
  0.35% 0.51% 0.75%  
%Change:   45.41% 46.31% 112.75%

If the intent of the analysis is to show whether Mr. Jerry Wilson misstated the facts, then it needs to go no farther, no graphs are necessary, the numbers speak for themselves. ~48% is NOT 300%. ~120% is NOT 300%. Hence when Fort Collins voters voted to ban Medical Marijuana Centers, they did so based on misinformation, which is very prevalent in today's political area.

As the allegations that Medical Marijuana Centers are at the root cause of this rise, let us test that theory for the null hypotheses. The hypotheses is that Medical Marijuana Centers are responsible for the ~50% per year rise in school drug incidents.

  • Hypothesis: Medical Marijuana Centers are the cause of the increase in PSD R-1 drug incidents.
  • Dataset: The dataset is attached below and includes raw data gathered by the PSD R-1 over the pertinent school years, 2008 through 2010.
  • Analysis: The analysis is attached below in both Open Office Calc and Microsoft Excel formats. The dataset for the pertinent years was entered into individual sheets, and those where analyzed, then the cumulative data was analyzed in an overall fashion.

First we look at the raw data for the baseline school year, 2008-2009, sorted by attendance. In the raw data, the type of drugs resulting in an incident aren't diffirentiated, nor does this analysis cover incidents other than drug incidents other than to track the total number of incidents reported.

Incident data, 2008-2009 school year, sorted by attendance.
(Click on image for full size version)

Next is the 2009-2010 school year:

2009-2010 PSD R-1 Attendance and incident data, sorted by attendance.
(Click on image for full size version)

 

AttachmentSize
2008-09safetyanddisciplinedatasummary_final_.pdf140.35 KB
2010-07-02_2009-10cdesafetyanddisciplinefinalreport.pdf232.82 KB
2010-11safetyanddisciplinedatasummary.pdf531.94 KB
psd_r-1_school_incident_data_2008-2010.ods87.36 KB
psd_r-1_school_incident_data_2008-2010.xls131 KB
psdr1_2008-9_unsorted.png321.07 KB
psdr1_2009-2010_unsorted.png311.57 KB

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